Focus Media (002027): Customer structure continues to adjust, optimistic about long-term layout value

Focus Media (002027): Customer structure continues to adjust, optimistic about long-term layout value

Event: The company announced the third quarter report of 2019.

Revenue in the first three quarters dropped by 18 over the past ten years.

12% to 89.

At 0.6 billion yuan, net profit attributable to mothers decreased by 71 each year.

72% to 13.

600 million yuan, performance in line with the three quarterly notice (11.

5 billion?
14.

5 billion).

Q3 single-quarter revenue fell by 15 per year.

33% to 31.

8.9 billion, net profit attributable to mothers has fallen by 60 every year.

18% to 5.

8.2 billion, net profit attributable to mothers reduced by 63.

99% to 4.

9.7 billion yuan.

The company forecasts 2019 results, and the net profit range is 17.

5 billion?
20.

5 billion, -69 in the 合肥夜网 past.

94%?
-64.

79%.

The performance is in line with expectations, and the most difficult period has passed.

The company’s net profit attributable to its mother in the first three quarters was mainly due to the weak macroeconomic impact on the demand of the advertising market, the company’s own customer structure adjustment, expansion of elevator media, credit impairment loss provision and provision.

In addition, the company has expanded elevator media resources since 18Q2, resulting in increases in media resource rents, equipment depreciation, labor costs, and operation and maintenance costs.

Concerned about the “super overlay marketing” of the cooperation of Yiche.com, new changes in the segment profit model.

A classic experiment of the upcoming new car and niche practice of the “hyper-converged marketing” theory has become a hot topic from the perspective of the topic. It can be said that it has been initially successful, but specific sales data have to wait for easy car data.

We expect that once the effect is better, Focus Focus is expected to launch more single-day screens for a single customer in the future.

The company has set a pre-set “cyclic stock” label and is optimistic about its long-term layout value.

Focus’s customer structure has changed a lot over the past year. In the first half of this year, the industry category “daily consumer goods” accounted for 30% of the revenue of customers.

66%, it is estimated that the customer revenue of consumer goods in 19Q3 increased by nearly 20% each year; and the proportion of “Internet” customer revenue dropped to 22.

15%, almost a half.

The company’s customer structure is moving towards the consumer goods industry, so even when the economic environment is relatively bad, it is expected to enjoy the growth of α, once the subsequent economic recovery, return to the growth of α and β.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company is expected to realize net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021.

21 billion, 34.

9.5 billion and 44.

1.2 billion, corresponding to 44.
6 times, 25.

8 times and 20.

4 times price-earnings ratio, it is recommended that long-term investors can gradually layout.
Risk reminders: Customer structure adjustment is less than expected, pressure on accounts receivable, pressure from the continued downturn in the advertising industry, and pressure from fierce market competition.